Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
